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Long term · Independent research

Research Businesses, Not Stock Prices.

看懂生意,不猜股价。

We study business models, moats, free cash flow and returns on capital to understand how exceptional companies create value over time.

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Long-term lens

Focus on intrinsic value

Evidence-led

Financials with context

Independent analysis

Beyond market sentiment

Fully traceable

Sources, versions and risks

Latest company research

Start with the underlying business and its capacity to compound cash flow.

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伯克希尔·哈撒韦

BRK.B · NYSE

保险资本与多元经营构成较强韧性,但必要留存资本和可上移现金尚不能可靠合成为普通股可分配现金,现价安全边际无法判断。

Updated through 2026-10-11

Too hardRead report

开市客

COST · NASDAQ

开市客的低价采购、会员信任和高周转构成优质生意,但当前价格要求的增长或利润率明显高于本次有再投资约束的现金流情景。

Updated through 2026-10-08

Needs more researchRead report

台湾积体电路制造股份有限公司

2330 · TWSE

台积电具备强制造与设计生态优势,但现价大致要求基准增长和资本回报兑现,尚无明确安全边际;海外扩厂和长期尾部风险需要持续验证。

Updated through 2026-10-08

Needs more researchRead report

宁德时代

300750 · SZSE

规模制造和客户协同支持企业质量,但可分配现金、海外回报与当前权益价值桥仍需验证,291.11元不能据现有证据认定有明确安全边际。

Updated through 2026-10-06

Needs more researchRead report

汇丰控股

0005 · HKEX

汇丰拥有可验证的存款与跨境服务基础,但正常化普通股可分配现金、联营资本和当日稀释股数未闭合,暂不判断价格是否有安全边际。

Updated through 2026-10-06

Too hardRead report

美的集团

000333 · 深圳证券交易所

美的的规模制造、产品组合和渠道执行形成了有证据的竞争优势;中性经营假设支持价值高于现价,但增长、利润率、周转信用与资本成本等联合转弱时审慎情景低于现价,当前尚不能确认稳定的安全边际。

Updated through 2026-10-06

Too hardRead report

Research framework

One consistent lens, from business model to the stop-doing list.

  1. 1

    Understand the business

  2. 2

    Judge the moat

  3. 3

    Examine free cash flow

  4. 4

    Measure returns on capital

  5. 5

    Study management and culture

  6. 6

    Review capital allocation

  7. 7

    Estimate intrinsic value

  8. 8

    Demand a margin of safety

  9. 9

    Stay within the circle

  10. 10

    Keep a stop-doing list